Pacing Chart for Bear Chase 50 Mile Trail Race...

The Bear Chase 50 Mile Trail Race (Sunday, September 30, 2012) consists of 4 x 12.5 mile laps.  Last year, the Bear Chase being my first 50 miler, or race of any distance actually, I managed:

Lap 1 - 2:18 (11:02 pace)
Lap 2 - 2:40 (12:48 pace)
Lap 3 - 3:10 (15:12 pace)
Lap 4 - 3:30 (16:48 pace)

Total time: 11:40.

This year, with better fitness and more ultra experience under my belt (not much experience - only a 40 mile pacing effort at the LT100 and the North Fork 50 mile), I'm going to shoot for;

Lap 1 - 2:10 (10:24 pace)
Lap 2 - 2:23 (11:26 pace)
Lap 3 - 2:36 (12:29 pace)
Lap 4 - 2:50 (13:36 pace)

Total time: 9:59.

Now, there is no way it will ever pan out exactly as planned.  No run, race or not, ever seems to.  There will be something to deal with; weather conditions, hydration issues, fueling issues, spent legs, etc., etc..  And, there is the possibility (definitely highly likely) that I am just over-estimating my abilities over 50 miles.

I'll be somewhat disappointed with a +11:00 hour finish.  I'll be very happy with a 10:30 finish, but would be over-the-moon (a harvest moon at that on September 30!) with a sub 10:00 hour finish.